Mortgage rates tumbled, as short-term mortgage rates shot up higher sending the share of variable rate applications tumbling.
The share of adjustable rate mortgage application sank though a big drop in yield of the 1year Treasury-indexed ARM may change that. However, latest report suggests that late payments on subprime adjustable-rate mortgages have increased for eight consecutive quarters and currently sit near 17%, while delinquency improved on the fixed rate mortgages and loans insured by the Federal Housing Administration. Fueled by activity in just four states, foreclosure continued to rise during the latest quarter.
Among the rising fears, one is that the sub-prime mortgage crisis is beginning to infect Americas $300 car loan market as evidence emerges of a surge in the numbers of motorists in arrears. Lenders who made more than 40,000 sub-prime car loans in 2006 saw the percentage on those in arrears jump from 6.8% to 8%, while smaller lenders who lend to offer loans to higher risk customers saw their arrears levels more than double from 6.2% in 2005 to 14.6% in 2006. Wall Street is worried that the same mortgage borrowers who are falling behind with their home loan repayments will also miss repayments on their car loans.
The housing slump in the country is causing financial pain to banks that provided expensive home loans to low-income householders with poor credit ratings. The sub-prime car loan market targets the same risky borrowers. Like the mortgage market, sub-prime car loan companies package loans and sell them to financial investors.
Tighter lending conditions around expanding subprime mortgage market could even splash some cold water on the housing sector in the months ahead. Some lenders in the alternative mortgage market have already jacked up mortgage rates or withdrawn products in the face of rising costs. Several subprime lenders even have raised their mortgage rates by 100 basis points in the past three weeks. Commenting on the impact of the issue, Alex Haditaghi, chief executive officer of MotgageBrokers.Com, a publicly traded mortgage company, said, it will affect not all consumers, but a niche market however, that niche market is one with very active house buyers.
Most economists figure that the market is ripe for a slowdown anyway. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, for example, expects housing starts will slip 3% this year and about 6% next year. However, the credit squeeze is on the run that began in the US and has rippled throughout the world as a potential risk.
Earnings and liquidity continue to preoccupy executives and boardrooms of mortgage companies though some merger activity maintained. But as lenders grapple with unprecedented chaos in the mortgage market, class action attorneys are busy filing numerous lawsuits alleging investors were deceived.
Global markets continued to reflect concerns about economic impact of the crisis. The dollar fell to a record low against the euro and US equities also decline. Although some markets have already improved since the turmoil but the crisis would unwind at different rates in different markets.
The U.S. is the worlds largest economy and is moving into its fifth year of expansion. The biggest risk is the housing market which is expected to slow this year and potentially drag the economy down with it. Many people are betting that the housing market will avoid a major crash but instead will plateau leaving prices stagnant. The resulting rise in interest rates could put a lot of families under financial stress.
A housing market that is not growing quickly turns into a buyers market. People will have a number of houses to choose from which will block any increasing value for current home owners. To most home owners this will not be a problem because they have conventional fixed-rate mortgages and only need to wait until the market improves. People who have unconventional 5-year arms and interest only loans may be seriously hurt; especially if interest rates rise.
I think one of the principal risks is whether or not home prices decline and the impact that that will have in terms of influencing the savings rate and personal consumption growth as we have already seen in the U.K. and Australia said David Rosenberg a U.S. economist at Merrill Lynch (Wolk, 2005).
A bigger problem is peoples personal savings rates. Because debt is so easy today and most families are at a maximum borrowing limit many people who will see a jump in their interest payments may begin to default. This default raises the interest rate even further due to increased risks associated with lending money. In the end many people will not have money to spend or save which could have serious consequences for the economy as a whole.
The best measure to avoid such pit falls is to put a larger sum down on your house during purchase which gives you a cushion to work with incase you need to sell your house quickly. The second measure is to avoid all credit card balances, home equity loans and charge cards. Finally, only engage in fixed-rate mortgages.